Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
